climate change

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World mostly punts on climate change

The New York Times’ John Broder called it a “modest accomplishment” while Inter Press’ Stephen Leahy described it as “yet another failure.”

Both are news stories reporting on the conclusion of the week of intense climate change talks in Durban, South Africa — technically known as the UN Frameworks Convention on Climate Change.

Given the predictions by many that nothing much was going to happen, some say the agreement to continue the talks represents some kind of progress. Others not so much. As the NYTimes reports:

The conclusion of the meeting was marked by exhaustion and explosions of temper, and the result was muddled and unsatisfying to many. Observers and delegates said that the actions taken at the meeting, while sufficient to keep the negotiating process alive, would not have a significant impact on climate change.

“While governments avoided disaster in Durban, they by no means responded adequately to the mounting threat of climate change,” said Alden Meyer, director of policy at the Union of Concerned Scientists. “The decisions adopted here fall well short of what is needed.”

This is the same UN gathering that, in 1997, came up with the Kyoto Protocol, an agreement aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions that has had some problems and has been due to expire soon. Among the agreements reached in Durban, the Kyoto treaty was extended until 2017 or so.

Some of the key (mostly still unresolved) sticking points at the climate change meeting were about how to best assign responsibilities between rich and poor nations and how to support the growth of “green” economies and policies in the rapidly growing developing world.

The world’s biggest polluters — the U.S., China and India — were widely viewed in Durban as presenting the biggest obstacles to reaching consensus.

In a nutshell, the international community has largely punted on climate change, kicking the can down the road to be resolved later. Meanwhile, many say parts of Africa and other regions in the tropics will continue to suffer from altered weather patterns, rainfall and agriculture caused by climate change.

As The Guardian reported:

The deal did little to meet the needs of poor people already fighting climate change, and risked blurring important distinctions between the responsibilities of developed and developing countries…. The science of climate change tells us that, to avoid catastrophic levels of warming – and the droughts and floods that would inevitably follow – global emissions, which are rising at record speed, must peak within the next five years. The Durban deal’s provisions for action within this time period are vague.

Here are a few more reports out of Durban worth a look:

Atlantic How the world failed to address climate change, again

WashPost Five things to know about Durban climate pact

Reuters New Climate Deal Struck, Modest Gains

Alertnet Climate talks agree to keep disagreeing

SciDev Climate deal leaves questions on funding, tech transfer

Global map of carbon footprint, US leading cause of climate change

The Guardian has produced this interactive map that shows which nations are most responsible for producing the emissions driving global climate change.

The U.S., of course, shows up immediately as one of the world’s biggest air polluters and drivers of global warming. Meanwhile, our country’s representative at current climate talks going on in Durban, South Africa, is feeling the heat from critics.

This is just a screen grab. Go to link for the interactive map.

The Guardian

Says the Guardian:

There are many ways to view the world’s carbon emissions: by national totals or emissions per person; by current carbon output or historical emissions; by production of greenhouse gases or consumption of goods and services; by absolute emissions or economic carbon intensity.

Our interactive map allows you to browse all of these different measurements, each of which provides a different insight. Together they highlight the complexity of divvying up responsibility for climate change and some of the tensions at the heart of the global climate negotiations.

Inter Press: The connection between the land grab in Africa and climate change

Interpress News Service has published this short two-part series exploring the connection between the current “land grab” in Africa and how this may contribute to worsening climate change.

As stated in Part 1 At the nexus of agrofuels, land grabs and hunger:

While the United Nations climate talks in Durban enter their ninth day of political feet-dragging, researchers and peasants around the world are busy connecting the dots between so- called “green climate solutions”, industrialised agriculture and chronic hunger.

Many African nations are already seeing what they believe is the adverse impact of climate change, Inter Press notes, with shifting weather patterns or droughts  that reduce agricultural productivity, which can lead to hunger of widespread famine.

As stated by one of those interviewed in Part 2 of the series, many Africans see taking action on climate change as a matter of life and death:

“People on the streets of South Africa are calling the U.N. talks ‘genocidal’,” Quincy Saul, author of “Reflections of Crisis: The Great Depression in the 21st Century”, told IPS.  Quoting Archbishop Desmond Tutu, Saul added, “By delaying a binding agreement on global warming to 2020, the U.N. is effectively condemning 100 million Africans to death by the end of the century.”

Fueling the slow boil? More inaction predicted on climate change

 

There are probably lots of colorful, entertaining ways to describe what’s happening — or not happening — at a big international meeting on climate change being held all this week in Durban, South Africa.

Some say it’s a global example of the ‘tragedy of the commons.’ Others might make analogy to that dumb frog which could jump to save itself but just sits in blissful oblivion in a warming pan of water as it is slowly being heated to a boil.

The meeting is not over, but the Guardian already says it is unlikely anything will come of it.

Despite overwhelming scientific consensus that the current pace of climate change will have disastrous consequences, political leaders seem even less willing than before to reach agreement on what to do about it.

The world’s earlier agreement — the so-called Kyoto Protocol — will expire in a few months. This treaty aimed at creating a global plant for reducing greenhouse gases was drawn at an earlier such meeting of this same gathering, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Continue reading

U.N. scientists to policymakers: Prepare for climate change now

In a report for policymakers, released today in Kampala, Uganda, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calls for countries to prepare for the growing risk of extreme weather around the world.

“The report gives differing probabilities for extreme weather events based on future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, but the thrust is that extreme weather is likely to increase,” Reuters reports.

Think heat waves, more powerful hurricanes and typhoons.

Over at Dot Earth, the New York Times’ Andrew Revkin has pulled the report’s key findings about climate change’s predicted humanitarian effects. Here are some of the more startling forecasts:

—It is virtually certain that increases in the frequency of warm daily temperature extremes and decreases in cold extremes will occur throughout the 21st century on a global scale. It is very likely— 90 percent to 100 percent probability—that heat waves will increase in length, frequency and/or intensity over most land areas.

—It is likely that the average maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones (also known as typhoons or hurricanes) will increase throughout the coming century, although possibly not in every ocean basin. However it is also likely—in other words there is a 66 percent to 100 percent probability — that overall there will be either a decrease or essentially no change in the number of tropical cyclones.

—There is evidence, providing a basis for medium confidence, that droughts will intensify over the coming century in southern Europe and the Mediterranean region, central Europe, central North America, Central America and Mexico, northeast Brazil, and southern Africa. Confidence is limited because of definitional issues regarding how to classify and measure a drought, a lack of observational data and the inability of models to include all the factors that influence droughts.

—Projected precipitation and temperature changes imply changes in floods, although overall there is low confidence at the global scale regarding climate-driven changes in magnitude or frequency of river-related flooding, due to limited evidence and because the causes of regional changes are complex.

And here’s a presentation of the report:

But what does it all mean for human health?

“We need to be worried,” Maarten van Aalst, a lead author of the report, told the Associated Press. Continue reading

Scientists propose a ‘Five-Step Plan’ to save the planet

Flickr, Southernpixel Alby

A 5-step plan to save the planet sounds ridiculous, I know. But, as they say, even the longest journey begins with the first step.

Rather than simply get overwhelmed at all of the world’s many problems, an environment and land-use professor at the University of Minnesota and his colleagues decided to come up with a workable game plan to simultaneously deal with three major, overlapping forces that dictate our future:

Population growth, agriculture and the environment. Says study leader Jonathan A. Foley in an online article in Scientific American, Can We Feed the World and Sustain the Planet?:

Right now about one billion people suffer from chronic hunger. the world’s farmers grow enough food to feed them, but it is not properly distributed and, even if it were, many cannot afford it, because prices are escalating.

But another challenge looms.

By 2050 the world’s population will increase by two billion or three billion, which will likely double the demand for food, according to several studies.

That doesn’t sound too promising, especially when Foley and his colleagues go on to note that our current approach to agriculture uses about 40 percent of Earth’s land already and our approach to farming contributes about one-third of all greenhouse gas emissions causing climate change. Most of our water use also goes to agriculture.

And if population growth continues at its current rate, we will need to double food production by 2050.

Yikes! Anyone planning a trip to Mars? Continue reading

Global interactive map of climate change impact

The Center for Global Development has created a great interactive map illustrating the relative impact of climate change on nations.

The map is based on data predicting impacts caused by extreme weather events, sea level rise, agricultural productivity losses and overall rankings. No single nation ranks high risk in all categories. But clearly, Africa, India and other parts of Asia are predicted to fare the worst.

Go to the link above to use the interactive map and. This is just a screen grab

Center for Global Development

Bill Gates says key to beating climate change is energy innovation. Is it?

By Thomas Hawk

Bill Gates

Bill Gates was the keynote speaker for Seattle-based Climate Solutions‘ annual fund-raising breakfast today.

The gist of Gates’ message: The best way to fight climate change is to create forms of energy production that significantly reduce carbon emissions and are cheap enough to be of value to poor people worldwide.

“We need a breakthrough,” said the Microsoft co-founder and world’s leading philanthropist.

Continue reading